Investment Advisor: September 2019

September 5, 2019


Economic “Cross Currents” Causing Murky Waters


The markets definitely did not take a vacation this summer. Instead, they have been hard at work creating volatility. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) previously identified “Cross Currents” of growth and trade uncertainties have been the primary contributor.


The Fed moved forward in lowering the overnight fed funds rates on July 31, 2019. This rate cut has significantly impacted the yield curve, and currently, overnight and three-month rates are higher than intermediate and long-term bonds. In addition, the 2 and 10-year yields are approximately equal and have occasionally been inverted, which has occasionally been correlated with recessionary activity.


At Miles Capital, we recognize that the treasury yields are also being impacted by the global rate environment and the economy is actually doing fairly well. The consumer, retail spending, non-manufacturing surveys, and unemployment remain strong. We do not foresee a recession within the next 12 months.


The market currently expects the Fed to cut rates two more times in 2019 and again in 2020. We expect one cut yet this year, possibly in October or December.


At Miles Capital our team based disciplined process helps us to navigate effectively through market conditions including volatility such as we are experiencing now.

Disclosures
 

The views expressed herein are the current views of Miles Capital as the stated date and are provided for informational purposes only. They are believed to be correct, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed and should not be relied upon for legal or investment decision purposes. All expressions of opinion and predictions presented are subject to change without notice. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against market loss. As with all strategies, there is a risk of loss or all or a portion of the amount invested.